USD/CAD retakes 1.3500 and beyond, eyes weekly top amid modest USD strength

• USD/CAD scales higher for the second straight day amid sustained USD buying interest.
• Reduced bets for aggressive Fed policy easing and geopolitical risks underpin the buck.
• A modest downtick in Oil prices weighs on the Loonie and contributes to the move-up.

The USD/CAD pair attracts some follow-through buying for the second successive day on Thursday and climbs back above the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session. The move up is sponsored by a stronger US Dollar (USD), which continues to draw support from a combination of factors and supports prospects for a further intraday appreciating move. 

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, advanced to a three-week high amid reduced bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The markets continue scaling back their expectations for another oversized interest rate cut by the US central bank in the wake of this week's upbeat US data, which pointed to a still resilient labor market. This, along with rising conflicts in the Middle East, further benefits the safe-haven buck, which is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. 

Meanwhile, an unexpected build in US crude inventories on Wednesday indicates that the market is well supplied and could withstand any disruptions caused by the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. This, in turn, drags Crude Oil prices away from over a one-week high touched on Wednesday and undermines the commodity-linked Loonie. Apart from this, expectations for a bigger interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) turn out to be another factor weighing on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and contributing to the bid tone surrounding the USD/CAD pair. 

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, a subsequent strength back towards testing the weekly top, around the 1.3535-1.3540 region, looks like a distinct possibility. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and the ISM Services PMI. Apart from this, Fedspeak will drive the USD demand, which, along with Oil price dynamics, should produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CAD pair.