The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its downside for the third successive session following the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Friday. The JPY faces challenges as traders expect the BoJ to ponder before further rate hikes.
The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.2% year-over-year in September, down from a 2.6% rise in August. Meanwhile, the CPI excluding fresh food and energy climbed 1.6% YoY in September, unchanged from the previous reading. The CPI excluding fresh food increased 2.0% as expected, compared to the previous rise of 2.4%.
The US Dollar could face pressure following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Traders are now expected to closely monitor the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for August, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, on Friday for fresh impetus, which is scheduled for release later in the North American session.
USD/JPY trades around 145.10 on Friday. Analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair is moving upwards within an ascending channel, indicating a bullish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the 50 level, confirming an emergence of a bullish sentiment.
On the upside, the ongoing bullish bias could lead the USD/JPY pair may explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 146.90 level, followed by its five-week high of 147.21 level, which was recorded on September 3.
In terms of support, the USD/JPY pair may test the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the level of 143.89, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.17% | 0.28% | 0.33% | 0.02% | |
EUR | -0.06% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.25% | -0.02% | |
GBP | -0.15% | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.19% | -0.10% | |
JPY | -0.13% | -0.05% | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.16% | 0.20% | -0.07% | |
CAD | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.00% | -0.03% | 0.10% | 0.18% | -0.13% | |
AUD | -0.28% | -0.22% | -0.14% | -0.16% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.25% | |
NZD | -0.33% | -0.25% | -0.19% | -0.20% | -0.18% | -0.06% | -0.29% | |
CHF | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.13% | 0.25% | 0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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