USD/INR holds steady as traders await Fedspeak

• Indian Rupee steadies in Thursday’s Asian session. 
• A rally in the Chinese Yuan and USD sales from local importers might boost the INR. 
• Investors will monitor the final US Q2 GDP Annualized data and Fedspeak on Thursday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat on Thursday. The sales of the US Dollar (USD) from local corporations, foreign inflows in Indian stocks and bonds, and the stronger Chinese Yuan might underpin the local currency. However, the rise in crude oil prices or risk-averse environment could weigh on the INR and help limit the pair’s losses. 

Traders will take more cues from the speeches of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Thursday, including Chair Jerome Powell. Any hints of another 50 basis points rate reduction by the Fed in November could undermine the USD against the INR. The final US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the second quarter (Q2) will be published later on the same day. On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will be in the spotlight. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains firm amid US Dollar sales from importers

• The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Wednesday that it estimates India's economy to grow at 7.0% in fiscal year 2025 and 7.2% in fiscal year 2026, retaining its growth forecasts from April.
• Moody’s Analytics noted that the slowing Indian economy will drag APAC's growth in 2025, as India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.5% in 2025 from an estimated 7.1% for 2024.
• Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said on Wednesday that she “strongly supported” the central bank’s decision last week, adding that it would be appropriate to cut rates further if inflation continues to ease as expected.  
• The US New Home Sales fell 4.7% MoM to 716,000 in August from a revised 751,000 in July, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. This figure came in better than expectations.
• The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is expected to show an increase of 2.3% YoY in August, while the core PCE is estimated to rise 2.7% in the same reported period.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR’s bearish bias remains in play 

The Indian Rupee trades on a flat note on the day. According to the daily chart, the USD/INR pair keeps the negative outlook below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 38.35, supporting the sellers for the time being.

Sustained bearish vibes potentially drag USD/INR lower to 83.44, the low of September 23. A break below this level could attract sellers to jump in and expose 83.00, representing the psychological level and the low of May 24. 

In the bullish case, a decisive break above the 100-day EMA at 83.62 could see a rally to the next upside targets near the support-turned-resistance level at 83.75. Further north, the next resistance level emerges at the 84.00 round mark.