GBP/USD pares back ahead of Fed’s midweek rate call

• GBP/USD eased back on Tuesday as markets brace for Fed appearance.
• UK CPI inflation data due early Wednesday, but unlikely to spark meaningful momentum.
• Markets are in a toss-up on Fed rate cut forecast.

GBP/USD pared back on Thursday, declining back toward 1.3150 as investors buckle down for the wait to Wednesday’s broadly-antiicpated rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed), where the US central bank is expected to kick off a rate cutting cycle.

UK CPI inflation figures are due early Wednesday, but the non-preliminary inflation print is unlikely to generate significant momentum with the figures all but fully priced in. Final UK CPI inflation figures for August are expected to print at 0.3% MoM compared to the previous -0.2% contraction, while the annualized CPI print is forecast to come in at 3.5% YoY, up from the previous 3.3%.

Forex Today: What if the Fed…?

US Retail Sales figures in August helped to keep market Fed expectations anchored, rising 0.1% compared to the median forecast of a -0.2% contraction. July’s Retail Sales figure was also revised higher to 1.1%, though core Retail Sales (excluding automotive purchases) only rose 0.1% compared to the 0.2% forecast.

The only meaningful event remaining on the data docket this week is the Fed’s upcoming rate call on Wednesday. Markets have been angling for a reduction in the fed funds rate since the beginning of the year when investors were clamoring for a March cut. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are still split on the depth of the Fed’s first expected rate trim since early 2020, with rate traders pricing in 60% odds of a 50 bps double cut to kick off the Fed’s next rate cutting cycle. The remaining 40% of rate cut expectations are stacked on a more reasonable 25 bps.

GBP/USD price forecast

Cable’s 0.6% surge to kick off the trading week has fizzled on Tuesday, with daily candlesticks continuing to grind back into the high side, with multi-year highs sitting just north of 1.3250.

Despite an overall bullish tilt, GBP/USD price action is running the risk of getting caught in a bull trap, with the pair having run hot in a 1.66% technical recovery from the last swing low into the 1.3000 handle.

GBP/USD daily chart