USD/JPY slides below mid-141.00s, seems vulnerable near YTD low amid bearish USD

• USD/JPY trades with negative bias for the fourth straight day and hangs near the YTD low.
• The divergent Fed-BoJ policy expectations turn out to be a key factor weighing on the pair.
• Investors now look forward to next week’s key central bank event risks for a fresh impetus.

The USD/JPY pair weakens further below mid-141.00s during the Asian session on Friday and has now moved back closer to the YTD low touched earlier this week. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of bearish traders and supports prospects for an extension of a well-established downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so. 

The US Dollar (USD) dives to a fresh weekly low in the wake of rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week, bolstered by Wednesday's release of softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) print. In fact, the markets are now pricing in over a 40% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 50 basis points at the end of the September meeting. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed near the 2024 low, which is seen weighing on the buck and dragging the USD/JPY pair lower. 

The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, continues to draw support from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish signals, indicating that it will raise interest rates further if the economic outlook aligns with the forecasts. In fact, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that the path towards ending the easy policy is still very long. This marks a big divergence in comparison to dovish Fed expectations, which, in turn, prompts further unwinding of the Japanese Yen (JPY) carry trades and contributes to the offered tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair. 

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside, though traders might prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risks next week. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision at the end of a two-day meeting next Wednesday. This will be followed by the BoJ policy update on Friday, which will determine the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the pair remains on track to end deep in the red for the second successive week.