USD/JPY: Range awaiting catalyst – OCBC

USD/JPY’s rebound was stopped in its track after BoJ’s Tamura said that BoJ needs to lift rate to 1% by outlook period end (2026), OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

The broader direction of travel for USD/JPY us to the downside

“He also said that the neutral rate is at least at 1%. He is perceived as a hawkish member. Yesterday, BoJ’s Nakagama said that real rates are at very low level and that BoJ will continue to adjust the degree of easing if the economy and prices perform in line with expectations.”

“Pair was last seen at 142.78 levels. Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias for now while RSI is flat. Death cross earlier formed with 50-DMA cutting 200-DMA to the downside. Bias to sell rallies. Resistance at 143.70, 145 (21-DMA) and 146.40 (23.6% fibo retracement of Jul high to Aug low). Support at 141.50, 140.70.”

“We reiterate that Fed-BoJ policy shifts and growing pace of normalisation can bring about faster narrowing of UST-JGB yield differentials and this should continue to underpin the broader direction of travel for USD/JPY to the downside.”