Forex Today: US CPI cooled hopes for a Fed’s 50 bps rate cut

What you need to take care of on Thursday, September 12:

Financial markets turned risk-averse after the United States (US) released the August Consumer Price Index (CPI). The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual CPI rose 2.5% YoY, easing from the previous 2.9%. Also, the core annual figure matched the July one and expectations by printing at 3.2%. However, the monthly core increase was higher than anticipated, hitting 0.3%-

Despite US CPI figures being broadly aligned with expectations, financial markets rushed into safety, as investors pretty much discarded an upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) 50 basis points rate cut when it meets next week. Policymakers are now expected to gradually loosen the monetary policy, with a 25 bps trim fully priced in.

Stock markets turned sharply south, with US indexes posting sharp losses following US data. Still, Wall Street changed course ahead of the close, with only the Dow Jones Industrial Average holding in the red.

US Treasury yields, in the meantime, reached fresh 52-week lows ahead of the US CPI, bouncing just modestly afterwards. The 10-year Treasury note currently yields 1 bps more than the 2-year note, suggesting recession-related fears remain limited.

The EUR/USD pair hovers around 1.1020, while GBP/USD met buyers around 1.3000 and now changes hands at around 1.3050. Commodity-linked currencies made the most out of stocks’ bounce, with the AUD/USD pair pressuring intraday highs in the 0.6670 region and the USD/CAD trading at daily lows in the 1.3560 price zone.

The USD/JPY pair fell to 140.70 early on Wednesday, a fresh 2024 low. By the end of the day, the pair recovered and stands well above the 142.00 mark. The Swiss Franc also gave up ahead of the daily close, and USD/CHF stands at around 0.8500.

Gold flirted with the $2,500 mark in the peak of risk aversion, recovering afterwards to settle at around $2,515.

Thursday’s macroeconomic calendar will include Australian September Consumer Inflation Expectations, previously at 4.5%, the United States Producer Price Index (PPI) and the European Central Bank (ECB)  monetary policy decision. The ECB is widely anticipated to cut the three main interest rates by 25 bps each.