Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains below $28.50 due to market caution, looming US CPI

• Silver price inches lower as traders adopt caution ahead of the US inflation data release on Wednesday.
• The non-yielding Silver faces minor challenges due to the uncertainty over the scale of a Fed interest rate cut.
• The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that the likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has slightly decreased to 29.0%.

Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to near $28.30 per troy ounce during Tuesday’s Asian hours. Traders adopt caution ahead of the US inflation report scheduled to be released on Wednesday to gain insights regarding the potential magnitude of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut in September. Changes in interest rates tend to impact non-yielding assets like Silver.

Last week, US labor data raised uncertainty over the scale of a Fed interest rate cut. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) added 142,000 jobs in August, below the forecast of 160,000 but an improvement from July’s downwardly revised figure of 89,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.2%, as expected, down from 4.3% in the previous month.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has slightly decreased to 29.0%, down from 30.0% a week ago.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee remarked on Friday that Fed officials are starting to align with the broader market's sentiment that a policy rate adjustment by the US central bank is imminent, according to CNBC. FXStreet’s FedTracker, which uses a custom AI model to evaluate Fed officials' speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10, rated Goolsbee's comments as dovish, assigning them a score of 3.2.