EUR/USD remains below 1.1100, faces challenges due to rising odds of ECB rate cut

• EUR/USD may face challenges as recent Eurozone inflation data have strengthened the likelihood of an ECB rate cut.
• Friday’s US economic data raised uncertainty over the likelihood of an aggressive Fed rate cut in September.
• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that Fed officials are starting to align with the broader market's sentiment of rate adjustment.

EUR/USD attempts to recoup losses from the previous session, trading near 1.1090 during Monday's Asian session. However, the EUR/USD pair's upside may be capped, as recent eurozone inflation data have solidified expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at upcoming Thursday's policy meeting.

With headline inflation nearing 2% and long-term inflation forecasts holding steady around the same level, the ECB has sufficient justification to further ease its monetary policy stance. Additionally, last week's mixed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone has reinforced expectations of a potential rate cut by the ECB.

On Friday, US economic data raised uncertainty over the likelihood of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September meeting. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) added 142,000 jobs in August, below the forecast of 160,000 but an improvement from July’s downwardly revised figure of 89,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.2%, as expected, down from 4.3% in the previous month.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has slightly decreased to 29.0%, down from 30.0% a week ago.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee remarked on Friday that Fed officials are starting to align with the broader market's sentiment that a policy rate adjustment by the US central bank is imminent, according to CNBC. FXStreet’s FedTracker, which uses a custom AI model to evaluate Fed officials' speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10, rated Goolsbee's comments as dovish, assigning them a score of 3.2.