GBP/USD takes a step higher as Greenback cools

• GBP/USD found a second day of gains as bidders return to Cable.
• Despite a miss in US early US jobs data, sentiment remains high on rate cut hopes.
• US NFP data on Friday to serve as a dipstick on the depth of upcoming Fed rate trim.

GBP/USD climbed for a second straight day on Thursday, setting up for a bullish recovery despite failing to recapture the 1.3200 level. Market sentiment held on the high side as a decline in new jobs growth kept hopes for an extended rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) pinned to the ceiling.

UK data remains thin on the economic docket as markets wind into Friday. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs additions due in the last US market session of the week promise to be a big event that will draw plenty of investor eyes.

According to payroll processor ADP, the US added 99K net new jobs in August, down from July’s revised 111K and well below the expected 145K. August’s ADP additions are the lowest print since early 2021, sparking a fresh round of risk aversion and reigniting investor concerns that the US could be heading into a recession.

The ADP jobs report serves as a bellwether for what markets can expect from Friday’s upcoming US NFP report, albeit one with a wobbly track record for accuracy. August’s NFP print represents the last significant labor update before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming rate call on September 18, when Fed policymakers are broadly expected to kick off a rate-cutting cycle.  Friday’s NFP print is slated to come in at 160K compared to the previous month’s 114K. 

According to the CME, rate markets are currently betting on 40% odds that the Fed will blow the doors open with a 50 bps cut later in the month. The remaining 60% are betting on a more demure 25 bps opening rate trim. Investors are anticipating using this Friday’s NFP print as a way to gauge the depth of the Fed’s first rate cut since the Fed slashed 100 bps in March of 2020.

GBP/USD price forecast

Despite an second intraday recovery in a row on Wednesday, Cable remains down from multi-month highs above 1.3250. The pair is sticking stubbornly to recent highs after vaulting to a peak 29-month bid in August. Price action is still tilted firmly into the bullish side above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2725, while the immediate downside technical target for shorts will be the 50-day EMA just above the 1.2900 handle.

GBP/USD daily chart