Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds below $28.50 as traders brace for US PMI data

• Silver price trades with mild losses around $28.25 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• The US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be closely watched on Friday. 
• USD rebound and China’s growth pessimism drag the Silver price lower, but firmer Fed rate cut bets might cap its downside. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades with a mild bearish bias near $28.25 on Thursday during the early Asian session. The modest recovery of the US Dollar (USD) weighs on the white metal. However, the rising speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut a deeper interest rate in its upcoming meeting this month might help limit Silver’s losses. 

The weaker US JOLTS report released on Wednesday increased the odds for a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed. According to the CME FedWatch tool, which acts as a barometer for the market's expectation of the Fed funds target rate, the chance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting is 57%, while the odds of the Fed cutting rates by 50 bps is 43%. The imminent Fed rate cuts might cap the precious metal’s downside in the near term as it makes XAG/USD cheaper for most buyers. 

The US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be in the spotlight on Friday, and it is expected to see 161,000 job additions in the US economy. In case of a weaker outcome, this could exert some selling pressure on the Greenback and lift the USD-denominated Silver price. 

On the other hand, China’s growth pessimism and demand concerns might undermine the white metal as China is the top silver exporter globally. Bank of America Global Research analysts cut China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts from 5.0% to 4.8% in 2024. Meanwhile, the downbeat Chinese Caixin Services PMI contributes to the downside, dropping to 51.6 from 52.1 in July.