GBP/USD softens below 1.3150, US PMI data looms

• GBP/USD weakens around 1.3125 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
• Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of US ISM PMI data. 
• Investors expect no rate cut by the BoE in the September meeting but see another 25 bps rate cut in November. 

The GBP/USD pair trades on a weaker note near 1.3125 during the early European session on Tuesday. The sell-off of the major pair is dragged lower by the firmer US Dollar (USD) ahead of the key US economic data. The Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is set to speak later on Tuesday, followed by the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). 

Investors gain more confidence that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start easing the monetary policy at its upcoming meeting in September, pricing in the odds of nearly 69% of the 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Fed Chair Jerome Powell not only said at the annual Jackson Hole symposium last month that “time has come for policy to adjust.”

The firmer Fed rate cut might weigh on the Greenback in the near term. Rabobank analysts currently expect four Fed rate cuts between September and January and then hold for the rest of 2025. Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be more significant than usual and might offer some hints about the size and pace of the Fed rate cut. The US economy is expected to see 163K job additions in August, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to tick lower to 4.2%.

On the other hand, the markets anticipate no rate cut by the BoE in the September meeting, while the possibility of a 25 bps rate cut in the November meeting stands at 87.2%. In the absence of top-tier economic data releases from the UK this week, the USD price dynamic will be the main driver for the GBP/USD.