Crude Oil trying to hold steady at the low end of near-term chop

• WTI scrambled to keep afloat of $73.00 on Monday.
• Crude Oil markets are looking to see if Libya cuts balance OPEC boost.
• Declines in China business activity are also weighing on Crude Oil bids.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil held roughly on-balance to kick off the new trading week, finding a foothold and keeping intraday action on the north side of $73.00 per barrel. Libya announced a halt of Crude Oil exports out of the country on Monday as political sections grapple over who controls Libya’s Crude Oil balance sheets while the Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to ease restrictions on member state production caps, and slowing activity figures in China are weighing on Crude Oil demand expectations.

According to reporting, Libya has halted all Crude Oil exports from the nation as political rivals battle over who controls Libya’s Crude Oil production assets, and more importantly, profits. Production levels from Libya rea also expected to draw down in the immediate future.

OPEC’s extended league of non-member allies, OPEC+, is set to beginning easing back on voluntary production caps as smaller countries buckle under the weight of lopsided pumping limits meant to keep global Crude Oil prices buoyed. Energy markets are broadly hoping that Libya’s sudden plunge in exports and production will help to at least partially offset the expected upswing in OPEC+ production figures.

China’s recent raft of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity surveys are increasingly tilting toward the low end as the country’s economic activity draws down much faster and steeper than many expected. With Chinese business activity stumbling into a steeper-than-forecast rut, markets are growing apprehensive that a drag in Chinese Crude Oil demand growth could leave the global oil market with a permanent overhang.

WTI price forecast

Crude Oil markets have once again found themselves trapped in a volatile range. WTI prices are bouncing between $72.00 and $77.00 per barrel, but a medium-term slide from July’s peaks near $84.00 per barrel has price action stuck on the low side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $78.00.

WTI daily chart