GBP/USD Price Forecast: Begins September with minimal gains

• GBP/USD fails to hold above July high of 1.3142, closing August at 1.3122, hinting at possible consolidation.
• Daily chart reveals a ‘bullish-harami’ pattern; clearing 1.3199 could aim for YTD high of 1.3266.
• Downside break below 1.3109 risks fall to 1.3044 and further to the 50-DMA at 1.2894.
• Momentum leans neutral to bullish, with RSI positive but stabilizing.

The GBP/USD begins September on a slight positive tone and trades at 1.3152, up by over 0.20% during the North American session. The session is expected to be light as US financial markets remain closed in observance of Labor Day.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD monthly chart witnessed a breakout failure of the July 2023 monthly high of 1.3142. Traders failed to achieve a daily close above the latter, ending August at 1.3122.

From a weekly chart standpoint, the GBP/USD is set for consolidation at around the 1.3140-1.3270 range before the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls data, which would be crucial for the US Federal Reserve to determine the size of the first-rate cut at the September 18 meeting.

Meanwhile, from a daily chart point of view, the GBP/USD is forming a ‘bullish-harami’ candle chart pattern, though traders must clear last Friday’s peak at 1.3199 before the pair can aim toward the year-to-date (YTD) highs of 1.3266.

Conversely, if GBP/USD consolidates and breaks below the August 29 swing low of 1.3109, this could exacerbate a drop toward the latest support level seen at the July 17 swing high of 1.3044 before slumping to the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2894.

Momentum is neutral to bullish biased, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in bullish territory but has turned flat.

GBP/USD Price Action – Daily Chart