EUR: A coiled spring? – ING

ING’s experts have been quite bullish on EUR/USD this month. But the question is whether the move close to 1.12 marks the end of the rally or whether there is more to come, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

EUR to trade in a range until the next US data release

“Technically, we think EUR/USD does resemble a coiled spring and that a move above 1.12 could trigger some strong follow-through buying as the speculative community sniffs out a new trend. Yet it is not clear from where that catalyst for a break-out will come this week. From the eurozone side, the main candidate could potentially be Friday's release of the flash CPI data for August.”

“Any upside surprise here could rein in the market's pricing of two-and-a-half ECB rate cuts by year-end, narrow EUR:USD two-year swap differentials still further and support EUR/USD. On the subject of ECB rate cuts, let's see what the two hawks, Klaas Knot and Joachim Nagel, have to say when they speak today.”

“Elsewhere, the run-up in oil prices on the back of increased Middle East tension and Libyan supply challenges will not be helping EUR/USD. And after a strong rally since early August, it looks like EUR/USD could be due some consolidation. We would favour a 1.1100-1.1200 trading range for now – waiting for some US activity data to disappoint.”