The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) churned on Tuesday, eking out a fresh two-week high near the 41,000.00 handle but overall holding close to the day’s opening bids as markets shuffle in place with key activity data and major central bank appearances in the barrel this week.
US Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) business activity survey results are slated for release on Thursday, as well as the kickoff of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium which is set to run through the weekend. Wednesday will deliver the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes, but market forces will broadly be looking ahead to Thursday’s outings for reasons to move.
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI activity expectations are forecast to hold steady at 49.6 in August, while the Services PMI component is expected to tick down a full point to 54.0 from 55.0. The kickoff of the Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to draw plenty of investor attention on Thursday, but Friday’s appearance from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can be expected to set the overall tone of market sentiment heading into next week.
The Dow Jones is mostly in the green on Tuesday, with roughly one third of the board testing into the low end for the day. Losses were led by Boeing Co. (BA) which fell another 4.2% to $172.09 per share, followed by Intel Corp. (INTC) which shed 2.22% and declined to $21.05 per share. On the high side, Walmart Inc. (WMT) rose roughly 1% to $74.44 per share, closely followed by Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) which climbed nearly the same and tested $74.50 per share.
With the Dow Jones back to testing the waters near the 41,000.00 major price handle, bulls will be looking for a fresh boost in momentum to drag the DJIA back into record highs set in June near 41,400.00. Short pressure could build in the charts with the index taking a breather after rallying for five straight trading days, but the index remains well-bid north of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 39,674.00.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
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