EUR/USD climbs on risk-on sentiment swing, approaches 1.11

• EUR/USD gains half of a percent as markets force the Greenback lower.
• Impending major central banking summit has investors looking out for Fedspeak.
• EU and US PMIs due later in the week.

EUR/USD rallied into a half-percent gain on Monday as investors kick off the new trading week with a fresh dog-pile into broad-market buy buttons. The Fiber was bolstered cleanly above 1.1050 and is headed firmly for a retest of the 1.1100 handle. Recently, a rough patch of bad US data reignited investor fears of an impending US recession, but a late upswing in more recent US data prints has soothed investor nerves, who have to returned to waiting for signs of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Forex Today: Attention shifts to Fedspeak ahead of Jackson Hole

The midweek stretch is a quiet affair as markets await key PMI data from both the EU and the US, as well as the kickoff of this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. All three are expected to land on markets beginning on Thursday.

Pan-EU HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are expected to test higher in August. EU MoM Manufacturing PMI numbers are expected to clip into 46.0 from 45.8, while the Services PMI component is forecast to hold steady at 51.9 over the same period.

Across the Atlantic, US PMI figures are expected to soften on Thursday. US Manufacturing PMI in August is expected to tick down slightly to 49.5 from 49.6, while US Services PMI numbers are forecast to fall an entire point to 54.0 from 55.0.

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, slated to kick off a multi-day central banker extravaganza on Thursday, will have investors across the globe tuning in for any signals from Fed policymakers about the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.

Recent bets of a double cut in September have eased significantly after reaching a peak of 70% two weeks ago. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in a scant one-in-five chance of a 50 bps cut on September 18. Overall, markets still have a 25 bps cut in September fully priced in, with three or four quarter-point cuts expected by the end of the year.

EUR/USD price forecast

EUR/USD set a new bidding high for 2024 on Monday, tapping 1.1086 as markets lean firmly into a risk-on stance. The Euro continues to rise against the Greenback unabated, kicking firmly above the 1.1000 handle as bidders drive the Fiber towards 1.1100. Bullish momentum fell short of reclaiming the key technical price handle, but buying power remains firm as the pair continues to climb.

EUR/USD has chalked in a nearly 3% gain bottom-to-top since the beginning of August, after the pair launched north following a swing low into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0800.

EUR/USD daily chart