Fed speak – Commerzbank

The US Dollar (USD) was also weighed down again yesterday by the fact that Fed officials sounded rather dovish.

Dovish Fed talk means USD strength is not justified

“For example, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, is quoted as saying: ‘Now that inflation is coming into range, we have to look at the other side of the mandate, and there, we’ve seen the unemployment rate rise considerably off of its lows’.”

“The unemployment rate was at a low of 3.4% (April 2023), but it is currently at 4.3%. But that is still a very low level. In my opinion, ‘considerably’ is not really the case. The fact that at least some FOMC members are still very openly itching to lower interest rates shows one thing: the Fed is not as fundamentally hawkish as Fed Chair Jay Powell likes to portray it in times of high inflation.”

“At least some of his colleagues are moving away from this as soon as inflation is no longer astronomically high. As I noted at the time, whether a central bank is truly hawkish only becomes apparent when inflation is no longer extremely high. If this dovish Fed talk is more than just an episode, the extreme strength of the USD that we saw in spring is not justified.”