Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds steady above $2,450 on positive Retail Sales data

• Gold price trades flat around $2,455 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
• US July Retail Sales beat expectations, rising 1.0% MoM; Initials Jobless Claims fell 7K to 227K last week.
• The escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East might cap the Gold’s downside. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) flat lines near $2,455 during the early Asian session on Friday. The yellow metal seesaws between gains and losses amid the consolidation of the US Dollar (USD). Traders will focus on the preliminary of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August, along with the Building Permits and Housing Starts. 

Following the release of encouraging employment-related data and strong retail sales, speculative interest in the world's biggest economy decreased, easing fears about a potential recession. However, traders still see the US Federal Reserve (Fed) start easing the policy in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are now pricing in a nearly 80% chance of a September rate cut and expect 200 basis points (bps) of reduction in the next 12 months, though that will depend on incoming data.

Data released by the US Census Bureau on Thursday showed that Retail Sales in the United States rose by 1.0% MoM in July, compared to a decline of 0.2% in June. This figure surpassed the estimation of a 0.3 increase. Meanwhile, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 10 arrived at 227K, better than the expectation of 235K and down from the previous week of 234K. The recent stronger job data and upbeat Retail Sales have strengthened the USD broadly and weighed on the precious metal. 

Nonetheless, the elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East might provide some support to Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. Gaza’s Health Ministry says more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks since October 7, with many more buried under rubble and threatened by illness, according to local news source Aljazeera.