USD/CAD hangs near multi-week low, flirts with 1.3700 mark ahead of US macro data

• USD/CAD struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s modest bounce from a multi-week low.
• Dovish Fed expectations and a positive risk tone weigh on the USD, capping gains for the pair.
• An uptick in Crude Oil prices underpins the Loonie and contributes to the modest downtick.

The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's late bounce from a four-week low and attracts some intraday sellers near the 1.3725 region on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to defend the 1.3700 mark through the early part of the European session as traders now look to the US macro data for a fresh impetus.

The US monthly Retail Sales, along with the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, followed by the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be published later during the early North American session. This, along with speeches by influential FOM members, will play a key role in driving demand for the US Dollar (USD) and produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CAD pair. 

In the meantime, expectations for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting cycle, bolstered by signs of cooling inflationary pressures, keep the USD bulls on the defensive. Furthermore, a generally positive tone around the equity markets further undermines the safe-haven buck. Apart from this, an uptick in Crude Oil prices lends support to the commodity-linked Loonie and exerts some pressure on the USD/CAD pair. 

Against the backdrop of worries about a wider Middle East conflict, hopes that rate cuts in the US will boost economic activity, and fuel consumption act as a tailwind for the black liquid. That said, concerns about slower global demand might curb gains for the commodity. Apart from this, bets for another 25-bps rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in September might cap the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and limit losses for the USD/CAD pair. 

From a technical perspective, this week's breakdown through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. Sustained weakness and acceptance below the 1.3700 mark will reaffirm the negative bias, which should pave the way for an extension of the USD/CAD pair's sharp pullback from the 1.3945 area, or the highest level since October 2022 touched earlier this month.