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14.08.2024, 19:34

Australian Dollar shows weakness after RBNZ cut

  • AUD/USD shows a decrease, dropping to 0.6615.
  • RBA maintains its hawkish position, potentially balancing the downside.
  • RBNZ’s dovish posture dragged down the Aussie as well as the Kiwi on Wednesday.

The AUD/USD pair experienced a decrease of 0.30% during Wednesday's session, settling near 0.6615, after the dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision. In addition, potential decline in demand for Australian exports due to the slowdown in the Chinese may negatively impact the AUD. However, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), paired with mixed Australian economic data, can potentially temper the downside.

Despite the mixed Australian economic outlook and high inflation, the RBA's consistent hawkish position only strengthens predictions for 25 bps of easing for 2024.

Daily digest market movers: Aussie under some pressure amid RBNZ decision, China's concerns

  • The pair's descent on Wednesday came despite further US Dollar losses, as a result of falling copper and iron ore futures. Worsening credit data from China, coupled with the country's weakened demand and substantial commodity supply, has negatively impacted markets.
  • In addition, the RBNZ unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points this morning and also revealed that a 50-basis-point cut had been seriously considered, which dragged down both the Kiwi and the Aussie.
  • However, investor confidence in the Australian Dollar was recently bolstered by the RBA's decision to maintain the official cash rate (OCR) at 4.35%. Its cautious view, along with predictions of sustained domestic inflation, suggests that both trimmed-mean and headline CPI inflation are now expected to meet the mid-point of the 2-3% range by late 2026, later than the earlier prediction of June 2026.
  • In that sense, among the G10 central banks, RBA is anticipated to be the last to initiate interest rate cuts. In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to facilitate easing in the near future, and this contrast may support AUD/USD in the coming months.

AUD/USD technical outlook: AUD/USD buyers breathe, outlook still promising

The AUD/USD pair currently displays a moderate bullish sentiment, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining fairly neutral around the 50 region, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows green bars.

Key support lies at 0.6600 and 0.6580, while resistance is observed around the 0.6640 area. Testing of these key levels is crucial for determining the pair's future direction.

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

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