USD/CAD drops below 1.3750 as traders bet on more Fed rate cut

• USD/CAD extends its decline near 1.3730 in Thursday’s early European session, losing 0.20% on the day. 
• The risk to consumer spending could be significantly weaker than expected in 2025 and 2026, noted the BoC Summary of Deliberations. 
• The weekly US Initial Jobless Claims will be released later on Thursday. 

The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day around 1.3730 during the early European session on Thursday. The extra decline of the Greenback due to the dovish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) drags the pair lower. Investors will take more cues from the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims ahead of the key Canadian employment report on Friday. 

The markets raise their bets that the Fed will take action more aggressively on the interest rate in its upcoming meeting in September. The growing expectation of Fed deeper rate cuts might exert selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) for the time being. Wells Fargo analysts are now forecasting two 50 basis points (bps) rate cuts at the FOMC meetings in September and November.

On the Loonie front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) Summary of Deliberations from the July 24 meeting that was published on Wednesday indicated that the Canadian central bank is concerned about the country’s economic outlook, particularly consumer spending in the coming years. The governing council stated that there was a “clear consensus” that if inflation continued to return to the 2% target, “it would be appropriate to lower the policy rate further.” BMO and CIBC analysts forecast further rate reduction of 75 basis points in 2024, or a quarter-point cut at each remaining meeting this year.

Market players await the employment report from Statistics Canada on Friday for fresh catalysts. The Canadian economy is estimated to add 22.5K jobs in July, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to tick higher to 6.5% in July from 6.4% in June.