USD/JPY trades around 149.50 after rebounding from four-month lows

• USD/JPY bounced back from a four-month low of 148.50 recorded on Thursday.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to an eight-month low of 46.8 in July, down from 48.5 in June.
• The Japanese Yen may advance as BoJ indicated that it may further increase rates if the economy requires it.

USD/JPY trades around 149.40 during the Asian session on Friday after rebounding from a four-month low of 148.50 recorded on Thursday. This upside of the USD/JPY pair could be attributed to the improved US Dollar (USD), which could be attributed to the increased risk-off mood following the recent manufacturing and employment data raising concerns about the US economy.

US Dollar (USD) receives support as markets are grappling with a delicate balancing act. However, an economic downturn heightens expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The CME's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are fully pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut on September 18. Furthermore, traders await upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings data for July, due to be released later in the North American session.

US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) tumbled to an eight-month low of 46.8 in July, compared to the previous 48.5 reading and the forecasted move up to 48.8. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 26 rose to 249K from the previous week’s 235K, exceeding the forecast uptick to 236K.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has received support following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to raise its policy rate to a 16-year high of 0.25%. This move, along with the BoJ's indication that it may further increase rates if the economy requires it, could drive the JPY higher. Market expectations are now factoring in two additional rate hikes before the end of the fiscal year in March 2025, with the next increase anticipated in December. This outlook might limit the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair.