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- USD/JPY plunged to 150.00 after surprise rate hike from BoJ
USD/JPY plunged to 150.00 after surprise rate hike from BoJ
- USD/JPY backslid 1.5% after the BoJ snuck in a quarter-point rate hike.
- The BoJ has chalked in its second rate hike since 2007.
- The US Fed’s latest rate call looms large as markets look for shifts in guidance.
USD/JPY tumbled 1.5% on Wednesday, extending a recent bearish downturn after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) delivered a surprise rate hike in the early hours of the Wednesday market session. It’s the second rate hike from the BoJ since 2007, and Japanese interest rates are above zero for the first time since September of 2010.
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest rate call is expected to keep rates steady for the time being, but markets have widely forecast a first quarter-point rate trim when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes in September.
Daily digest market movers: USD/JPY grinds lower ahead of Fed rate call
- The BoJ surprised markets with a second quarter-point rate hike for the year, lifting interest rates above zero to 0.25%.
- The Fed’s July rate call is broadly expected to keep rates standing pat.
- Markets will be looking for any adjustments to forward guidance, looking for hints about the Fed’s plans for September.
- Rate markets have fully pinned September rate cut forecasts to the ceiling, 100% odds of at least a quarter-point rate trim on September 18.
- Despite the rate hike from the BoJ, the Japanese central bank also trimmed its asset purchasing program less than expected, limiting upside potential from the rate hike.
- US Interest Rate Decision: Federal Reserve expected to hold the horses until September
Japanese Yen PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | -0.03% | -1.39% | -0.27% | 0.13% | -0.68% | -0.23% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | -0.07% | -1.43% | -0.33% | 0.06% | -0.73% | -0.28% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | 0.07% | -1.39% | -0.25% | 0.12% | -0.65% | -0.21% | |
| JPY | 1.39% | 1.43% | 1.39% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 0.71% | 1.20% | |
| CAD | 0.27% | 0.33% | 0.25% | -1.20% | 0.36% | -0.42% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.12% | -1.52% | -0.36% | -0.79% | -0.36% | |
| NZD | 0.68% | 0.73% | 0.65% | -0.71% | 0.42% | 0.79% | 0.45% | |
| CHF | 0.23% | 0.28% | 0.21% | -1.20% | -0.02% | 0.36% | -0.45% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Technical analysis: USD/JPY continues to ease for now
USD/JPY tumbled back to the 150.00 major price handle for the first time since March, shedding 1.5% on Wednesday and diving below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after a steady drift into the bullish side since January. The pair is down 7.6% peak-to-trough after hitting multi-decade highs earlier this month, driven lower by a series of suspected “Yenterventions” from the BoJ and the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
Markets will be waiting to sniff out the lay of the land moving forward, but it won’t take much buying pressure for markets to push USD/JPY back into the north side of the 200-day EMA at 152.40. A technical floor is priced in near 147.50 at March’s swing low, with 2024’s early low bids just north of 140.00 waiting further below.
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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