AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears taking breather, paving way for sideways trade

• AUD/JPY pair continues a steady ascent in Monday's session, settling at 100.85, yet still displays a losing pattern over several weeks.
• Despite a minor upward correction, the medium-term bearish trend persists as the pair sheds above 7% in July.
• The 200-day SMA near 100.00 remains a critical support level to ward off added losses.

During Monday's trading, the AUD/JPY pair recorded a minor gain of 0.15%, landing at 100.85. However, sellers are still in control, as the pair concluded last Friday with a 4.30% loss for the week, reaffirming the bearish bias. Although there is a mild upward correction taking place, the bears seem to be taking a breather, suggesting potential sideways trade unless a key fundamental catalyst comes into play.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be losing momentum, yet it remains securely in the oversold territory, indicating a continued possibility of a corrective move. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to exhibit red bars, signifying a persistent selling activity despite the slight decrease in intensity.

AUD/JPY daily chart

Next, the pair needs to establish a firm base at the 200-day SMA found at 100.00—this remains a vital support level. On the downside, traders must keep an eye on levels around 99.50 and 99.30. For potential recovery, buyers should target surpassing the immediate resistance at 101.00 and then aim at the 102.70 point where the 100-day SMA converges, as these could help offset any potential losses.