GBP/USD holds positive ground above 1.2850, focus on Fed/BoE rate decision this week

• GBP/USD trades in positive territory for the second consecutive day near 1.2885 in Monday’s Asian session. 
• The US Fed is expected to hold its interest rate at its July meeting on Wednesday.
• The markets see a 50% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by the BoE on Thursday. 

The GBP/USD pair holds positive ground around 1.2885 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the softer US Dollar (USD) amid the hope of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. The Fed and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meetings on Wednesday and Thursday will be closely watched events. 

Most analysts and traders expect the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged at its next meeting on Wednesday. The US Fed might signal this week that interest rate cuts are on the way, although it is widely anticipated to hold steady until its next rate decision in September. Investors are now seeing that the first rate cut will come by mid-September, pricing in 100% of the Fed rate cut by at least a quarter-percentage-point by then, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool. 

Traders will also closely monitor the FOMC press conference for fresh impetus. The dovish tone from the FOMC might undermine the Greenback and create a tailwind for GBP/USD. 

On the GBP’s front, the BoE might cut interest rates at its August meeting on Thursday, the first-rate cut since 2020. The markets forecast 50% odds of a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, although views are split on whether the cut will occur now or at the next meeting in September.