Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats from $28 amid uncertainty ahead of US core PCE Inflation

• Silver price exhibits weakness with investors focusing on the US core PCE inflation for June.
• The Fed is expected to start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.
• China’s dismal economic outlook has dampened Silver’s demand as an industrial metal.

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls back after a short-lived pullback move to near $28.00 in Friday’s European session. The white metal remains in the bearish trajectory amid uncertainty over its demand as an industry metal globally.

The lackluster outcome of China’s Third Plenum, its weaker-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and an unexpected rate-cut decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) have pointed to a slowdown in the world’s second-largest nation. This has raised concerns over the scale of business investment and consumer spending. Silver as a metal has applications in various industries such as renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and electrical appliances etc.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty among investors ahead of the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT, has kept the Silver price on the backfoot.

The core PCE inflation data, a Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, is estimated to have decelerated to 2.5% from May’s reading of 2.8% year-on-year, with monthly price pressures growing steadily by 0.1%. The underlying inflation data will influence market expectations for rate cuts, which investors expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing in September.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price weakens after a breakdown below the horizontal support plotted from June 26 low at $28.57 on a daily timeframe. The near-term outlook of the Silver price appears to be uncertain as the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are on the verge of delivering a bearish crossover near $29.50. On the downside, the asset will find support near May 2 low at $26.00.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, suggesting that a bearish momentum has been active.

Silver daily chart