GBP/JPY pumps the brakes on recent declines as Yentervention impacts remain limited

• GBP/JPY is slowly finding balance after a fresh round of suspected Yenterventions.
• The trading week kicks off with a data-light start.
• UK PMI activity figures, Japanese Tokyo CPI due later in the week.

GBP/JPY continued a near-term pattern of testing the low side on Monday, briefly dipping below the 202.00 handle before recovering back into familiar territory near 203.00. The pair has been knocked off of 16-year highs above 208.00 after a fresh round of suspected Yenterventions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) the week before last, but downside momentum has drained out quickly. The Yen’s near-term resurgence now appears poised to face renewed threat as broader markets have little reason to bid JPY higher.

The trading week opened on a quiet note, and GBP/JPY traders will have to wait until they’re over the midweek hump for any meaningful data. UK S&P Global/SIPS Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are due early Wednesday, while the latest Japanese Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print is slated for early Friday. Markets are expecting a slight uptick in UK PMI activity in July. Investors are also expecting another uptick in Japanese Tokyo CPI inflation, but the figures are still broadly unlikely to spark rate hikes from the hypereasy BoJ.

GBP/JPY technical outlook

The Guppy continues to underperform, testing into the low side, but near-term bearish momentum is evaporating and daily candlesticks continue to churn just north of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 201.52. Price action continues to trade well above the 200-day EMA at 192.40, and a recent tumble from the 208.00 handle appears set to be cut short.

GBP/JPY hourly chart

GBP/JPY daily chart