Mexican Peso falls amid safe-haven flows, sour mood

• Mexican Peso plunges more than 2.30% in the week.
• Mexico’s creditworthiness remains solid as Fitch reaffirms Mexico's BBB rating but warns about the judiciary reform.
• Trump's comments on immigration and automotive industry relocation impact Mexican Peso sentiment.

The Mexican Peso prolongs its agony against the US Dollar and dips some 0.16% during the North American session, hurt by market mood deterioration as investors flock to safe-haven currencies. The official nomination of former President Donald Trump as a Republican Candidate and remarks linked to Mexico could be one of the reasons behind the USD/MXN advance, which traded at 17.99 above its opening price by 0.16%.

Sentiment remains sour, as depicted by worldwide indices trading with losses. The Mexican economic docket will gather pace next Monday, July 22, with the release of May's Economic Activity alongside Retail Sales for the same period. This, in turn, has left market participants adrift to US Dollar dynamics.

Across the border, Trump’s comments put Mexico in the spotlight, commenting that he will end illegal immigration “by closing the border and completing the wall.” He added, “China and Mexico have taken 68 percent of our automotive industry, but we are going to get it back.”

The remarks threaten to prevent companies from relocating to Mexico, which could weaken the Mexican Peso.

Meanwhile, Fitch ratings reaffirmed Mexico’s BBB- qualification with a stable outlook, though added that the proposed judicial reform would impact the country. The credit rating agency stated there’s uncertainty in the upcoming administration to narrow the fiscal deficit, expects a slight economic downturn in 2025, and added that trade tensions with the US could leave Mexico vulnerable.

A light US economic schedule will feature New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against the other six currencies, climbed back above 104.30, gaining 0.12%.

Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso hurt by risk aversion

• Mexico’s Economic Activity in May is expected to contract -0.6% MoM and expand by 5.4% YoY. Retail Sales are foreseen to stay positive at 0.5% MoM and 3.2% YoY.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjusted Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expectations for 2024 from 2.4% to 2.2% due to the country’s economic slowdown and the US economic downturn.
• Bloomberg’s interview of Donald Trump spooked investors as the former US President commented that he favors tax reductions, lower interest rates, and tariffs, including a 60% to 100% increase in China’s products and a 10% in the general rate in other countries.
• The CME FedWatch Tools show that the chances of a quarter-percentage-rate cut to the federal funds rate in September are at 98%.
• June consumer inflation figures were lower than expected in the United States, increasing the chances that the Federal Reserve would lower borrowing costs in 2024 by at least 50 basis points, according to the December 2024 fed funds rate futures contract.

Technical analysis: Mexican Peso stumbles as USD/MXN hovers around 18.00

The USD/MXN has jumped off the floor formed at around 17.58-17.60 amid traders' nervousness about former President Trump's “upcoming” victory as they ditch the Mexican currency. Since Thursday, the exotic pair has gained 1.50% and challenged the psychological 18.00 figure but has failed to print a daily close above the latter.

If USD/MXN extends its gains above the psychological 18.00 figure, that will expose key resistance levels. Once breached, the next stop would be the July 5 high at 18.19, followed by the June 28 high of 18.59, allowing buyers to aim for the YTD high at 18.99.

On further weakness, if USD/MXN clears the 50-day SMA at 17.63, that would pave the way to challenge the December 5 high at 17.56, followed by the 200-day SMA at 17.27. Further losses would test the 100-day SMA at 17.21.