Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls toward $30.50 after mixed data from China

• Silver price loses ground following mixed data from China, the world's largest manufacturing hub.
• China's GDP (YoY) grew by 4.7% in Q2, down from the previous expansion of 5.3% and below the expected 5.1%.
• The higher US Dollar puts pressure on Silver as USD-denominated commodities become more expensive for foreign buyers.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends losses for the second successive day, trading around $30.60 per troy ounce during the early European session on Monday. This downturn can be attributed to mixed economic data from China, applying mild pressure on the grey metal. Silver is essential in various industrial applications, such as electronics, solar panels, and automotive components. Given China's status as one of the world's largest manufacturing hubs, the country's industrial demand for Silver is significant.

China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 4.7% year-over-year in the second quarter, compared to a 5.3% expansion in the first quarter and an expected 5.1%. China's Retail Sales (YoY) increased by 2.0% in June, falling short of the expected 3.3% and below May's 3.7%. Meanwhile, the country's Industrial Production for the same period showed a growth rate of 5.3% year-over-year, surpassing estimates of 5.0%, albeit slightly lower than May's 5.6%.

The US Dollar (USD) improves due to improved risk aversion following the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump on Saturday. Analysts suggest that if this incident boosts Trump's election prospects, it could lead to so-called 'Trump-victory trades,' which may include a stronger US Dollar and a steeper US Treasury yield curve, according to Reuters. A strong US Dollar puts pressure on commodity prices like Silver. This is because commodities priced in dollars become more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing overall demand.

The non-yielding metals like Silver may find support due to rising expectations of a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September. This anticipation is driven by the softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in June. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets now indicate an 88.1% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September Fed meeting, up from 72.2% a week earlier.