Crude Oil declines on Monday, WTI faces familiar technical levels as tropical storm fears ease

• Crude Oil markets chilled on Monday, easing lower as odds of supply constraints drop.
• Fears of supply chain disruptions from Tropical Storm Beryl eased after storm downgrade.
• Barrel traders will be looking for a continuation of last week’s supply declines to bolster prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) eased lower on Monday, bleeding bids as broad-market fears of supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Beryl have receded. The tropical storm, which initially made landfall in Texas as a category 1 hurricane, has been downgraded after wind speeds declined, and looks set to peter out without disrupting US domestic Crude Oil markets.

A risk bid from possible supply chain disruptions from Beryl helped to bolster Crude Oil prices last week. However, Monday’s updates to the storm’s projected dissipation has pulled technical support from beneath Crude bids, extending Friday’s declines and sending WTI down to $81.60.

Crude Oil markets will be looking for a continuation of last week’s sharp supply drawdown after both the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) both post huge week-on-week contractions in US Crude Oil supplies. Energy investors will be looking for a repeat this week when the API reports Weekly Crude Oil Stocks on Tuesday, followed by EIA barrel counts on Wednesday.

Global energy markets continue to keep Crude Oil prices bid on long-running hopes of a broad uptick in fossil fuel demand, but after a half-year of flubbed sparks in demand upticks, analysts are beginning to express skepticism about the accuracy of demand growth projections from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Global Crude Oil demand forecasts were initially built upon a foundation of easing global interest rates, a trend that has failed to materialize through 2024.

WTI technical outlook

WTI US Crude Oil has eased back below the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82.14, testing close to a familiar technical inflection point at $81.50. WTI flubbed a bullish push into fresh near-term highs last week, falling just short of reclaiming the $84.00 handle and easing back into recent technical levels.

Daily candlesticks are set to finish an unceremonious end to a recent bullish break north of a near-term congestion zone. An extended backslide will see WTI bids challenging the 200-day EMA at $79.29 once more.

WTI hourly chart

WTI daily chart