Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edges lower below $2,400, PBoC refrains from gold purchases for second month

• Gold price edges lower to $2,385 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 206K in June versus 218K prior, above the expectation of 190K.
• The Chinese central bank refrained from gold purchases for a second month, dragging the yellow metal price lower. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers near $2,385, snapping the three-day winning streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The downtick of the yellow metal is backed by the modest rebound of the Greenback and the Chinese central bank paused Gold buying for the second month. However, the safe-haven flows amid the political uncertainty might lift the precious metal. 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) employment increased by 206K in June, above the expectation of 190K. The growth was lower than the previous reading of 218K, according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) on Friday. Meanwhile, the Unemployment rate ticked up from 4.0% in May to 4.1% in June. Finally, Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM in June, matching expectations. 

The market is currently pricing in a 77% odds of a September rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), up from 70% last Friday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Furthermore, the FOMC minutes showed that policymakers acknowledged that price pressures were easing, triggering the expectation of Fed rate cuts this year, which might drag the Greenback lower and lift the USD-denominated Gold. 

Additionally, the political uncertainty in Europe, particularly in France, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting precious metals. According to the Economist, exit polls suggested that the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) seems to be on track to win the most seats in the second voting round of French parliamentary elections on Sunday. Investors are concerned about uncertainty as the final round of the French parliamentary elections pointed to a hung parliament.

Elsewhere, data from China over the weekend showed that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) refrained from gold purchases for a second month. "It appears that gold prices remain a little too high and the PBOC is waiting for a further pullback before resuming its gold purchasing programme," said Nitesh Shah, a commodity strategist at WisdomTree. It’s worth noting that China is the world’s biggest billion consumer and the pause in gold buying could weigh on the Gold price.