EUR/USD drifts into familiar midranges after Friday goes nowhere

• EUR/USD wraps up trading week at familiar technical levels near 1.0700.
• German data broadly missed the mark early Friday.
• US PCE inflation met expectations, but good mood was brief.

EUR/USD pivoted into a sideways grind on Friday, wrapping up a flat trading week after Fiber traders found little reason to push the pair meaningfully in either direction. German import prices and labor figures broadly miss the mark, and US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation failed to spark a meaningful bid despite printing at forecasts.

German Unemployment Change clocked in higher than expected, showing 19K German consumers were added to unemployment figures in June. This is more than the forecast 15K, but still below the previous month’s 25K. The German Unemployment Rate also ticked higher to 6.0% versus the forecast hold at 5.9%.

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On the US side, Core PCE Price Index inflation ticked down for the year ended May, cooling to 2.6% from the previous 2.8%. While the decline in key inflation readings will be a welcome addition to recent inflation data, it failed to spark a meaningful risk-on bid for investors as the figure was nowhere near cool enough to drive the Federal Reserve (Fed) towards an accelerated pace of interest rate cuts.

US Personal Income rose 0.5% MoM in May compared to the forecast 0.4% and previous 0.3%, but US Personal Spending came in at 0.2% versus the forecast 0.3%, and the previous print saw a slight downside revision to 0.1% from the initial 0.2%.

The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 68.2 in June, up from the previous 65.6 and climbing over the forecast 65.8. However, UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations ticked down to 3.0% in June, down from the previous 3.1% but inflation expectations continue to ride well above the Fed’s inflation target of 2% annually.

Coming up next week, European inflation numbers will be landing on markets early in the week with German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures on Monday, followed by pan-EU HICP inflation on Tuesday. Next week also marks the next US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor data dump, slated for next Friday.

EUR/USD technical outlook

The Fiber ran directly into technical barriers on Friday, getting swamped out at the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0715. The pair continue to battle with the 1.0700 handle, and bidders have been thus far failing to throw off a near-term pattern of lower highs.

EUR/USD daily candlesticks continue to grind out a rough consolidation pattern as the pair struggles on the low side of the 200-day EMA at 1.0788. As buyers continue to show signs of exhaustion, a downside break to 2024’s bottom bids at 1.0600 becomes increasingly likely.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart