WTI sets to close positively for third straight week on firm Fed rate-cut prospects

• WTI looks all set to close on a bullish note for a straight third week.
• Firm Fed rate-cut prospects have improved Oil price appeal.
• Upside risks to the widening Middle East crisis have stemmed supply concerns.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, post a fresh eight-week high near $82.00 in Friday’s European session. The Oil price is set to close on a positive note for the straight third week amid firm speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 64% chance of the central bank reducing interest rates from their current levels in the September meeting. The tool also shows that there will be two rate cuts this year instead of one, as projected by Fed officials in their latest dot plot.

For fresh cues on the interest rate outlook, investors will pay attention to the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Annually, price pressures are estimated to have decelerated to 2.6% from the prior release of 2.8%. On month-on-month, the underlying inflation data is expected to have grown at a slower pace of 0.1% from the prior release of 0.2%.

Soft inflation figures would boost expectations of early rate cuts by the Fed. The scenario will improve the overall demand outlook, which will be favorable for the Oil price.

On the geopolitical front, deepening risks of widening Middle East tensions have also prompted the Oil price’s appeal. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned a massacre in Lebanon if Hezbollah launches a war. The spread of war from Gaza to Lebanon would result in supply chain disruptions.