Natural Gas supported with another Norwegian outage

• Natural Gas remains steady above $2.80 on Monday, near last week’s support. 
• Traders assess another outage in Norway at the Hammerfest LNG plant. 
• The US Dollar index trades in the high 105.00-region, though it might face pressure from Yen interventions. 

Natural Gas price (XNG/USD) trades steady to slightly higher on Monday. Despite last week’s retreat, some headline risk is forming again, with Norway having to report an unforeseen outage. This makes it very difficult for Europe to foresee if it will get refueled ahead of the heating seasons with Gas flows into Europe being very unpredictable. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is trading near its June high, where it roughly closed at the end of last week. However, there is a risk for a quick correction as the US Dollar (USD) is near the feared 160.00 level against the Japanese Yen (JPY), a level at which the Japanese government intervened in the past. The last time the government intervened, the Japanese Yen appreciated over 5% against the Greenback with a ripple effect into the DXY, which dropped nearly 2% on the back of it. 

Natural Gas is trading at $2.83 per MMBtu at the time of writing.  

Natural Gas news and market movers: Russia on the move

• Russia is going around the Arctic Sea quicker than expected, with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tanker Eduard Toll passing through the Northern Sea Route. This is the quickest way for Russia to get LNG to Asia. 
• Norwegian network operator Gassco reported an outage at the Hammerfest LNG Plant on Monday, according to Bloomberg. Although the outage should be solved during the day, it again shows how unreliable the current Gas flows from Norway into Europe are. 
• Japan is buying into Texas shale Gas, with Mitsui & Co Limited, buying some acres to excavate for drilling. The site should be operational by 2026.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: RSI has cooled down

Natural Gas prices have eased and might start to pick up again if the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is any guide. With the price near $2.83, the RSI has cooled down after trading at elevated levels and is currently in the middle of the range around 50.00. With these constantly interrupted Gas flows from Norway into Europe, it becomes very difficult to assess whether Europe will see its Gas storage filled up in time. 

The pivotal level near $3.08 (March 6, 2023, high) remains key after its false break last week. In addition, the red descending trendline in the chart below at $3.10 will also weigh on this area as a cap. Further up, the fresh year-to-date high at $3.16 is the level to beat. 

On the downside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) acts as the first support near $2.54. Should that support area fail to hold, the next target could be the pivotal level near $2.13, with interim support by the 55-day SMA near $2.51 and by the 100-day SMA at $2.21. 

Natural Gas: Daily Chart