USD/JPY: The pair to rise above 160.00, potentially reaching 160.25 – UOB Group

As long as the US Dollar (USD) remains above 159.30, it could rise above 160.00, potentially reaching another resistance level at 160.25, UOB Group analysts note.

A break below 158.80 to indicate more downside

24-HOUR VIEW: “After AUD soared last Thursday, we indicated on Friday that ‘strong momentum suggests further USD strength.’ We also indicated that ‘given that conditions are overbought, the major resistance at 159.50 is likely out of reach for now.’ The anticipated USD strength exceeded our expectations, as USD surged to 159.84. Momentum remains strong, and further USD strength is not ruled out. Today, as long as USD remains above 159.30 (minor support is at 159.55), it could rise above 160.00, potentially reaching 160.25.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view since early last week (see annotations in the chart below). Last Friday (24 Jun, spot at 158.90), we noted that ‘upward momentum has increased, and USD could continue to advance to 159.50, with a lower probability of it reaching 160.00.’ While our view was not wrong, we did not quite expect USD to break above 159.50 and approach 160.00 as quickly (USD rose to a high of 159.84 in NY trade). From here, USD could break above 160.00, but note that there is another resistance level at 160.25. On the downside, should USD break below 158.80 (‘strong support’ level was at 158.00 last Friday), it would indicate that USD is not strengthening further.”