Fed monitors inflation closely as markets remain optimistic about a September rate cut

• Federal Reserve looks for more "good inflation" data before cutting rates.
• Jerome Powell reiterates data-dependent approach, says they will make decisions meeting by meeting.
• Federal Reserve policymakers are divided over the timing of the policy pivot.

Federal Reserve (Fed) left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% following the June policy meeting, as expected. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called dot plot, showed that policymakers were divided over the near-term rate outlook. Four of 19 officials saw no rate cuts in 2024, seven projected a 25 basis points (bps) rate reduction, while eight marked down a 50 bps cut in the policy rate.

Fed officials comment on policy outlook

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from hinting at the timing of the rate reduction in the post-meeting press conference. "We need further confidence, more good inflation readings but won't be specific about how many to start rate cuts," Powell explained.

Following the Fed event and May inflation data, the probability of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged in September declined toward 30% from 50%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

With the Fed's blackout period coming to an end after the June meeting, investors will pay close attention to comments from policymakers in the near term. 

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she would like to see a "longer run of good-looking inflation data," and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated over the weekend that it would be a “reasonable prediction” that the Fed will wait until December to cut interest rates, adding that the central bank is in a very good position to get more data before making any decisions.