EUR/USD extends into a third straight down day as Fed rate call looms

• EU parliparliamentarytions knock back market stability.
• US CPI inflation and Fed rate call due on Wednesday.
• Fed’s update to “dot plot” on Wednesday is heavily anticipated.

EUR/USD slid into a third straight loss on Tuesday as market sentiment sours on the back of roiled EU parliamentary elections. Elections saw a firm swing into support for center-right and far-right parties by European voters and steep losses for left-leaning political parties as EU citizens express dissatisfaction with economic fragility and current policy tactics from established European ruling parties.

An update in US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) rate call are due on Wednesday, and market sentiment is coiling around itself as investors fear a steep shift in the Fed’s “dot plot”, or summary of Interest Rate Expectations looking forward. The Fed is broadly expected to hold interest rates this week, but markets will be piling into the latest dot plot to see if the Fed is still expecting to deliver some rate cuts in 2024.

US CPI inflation, Fed rate call dominate investor headspace

Markets are expecting US CPI inflation to cool down to 0.1% MoM in April compared to the previous month’s 0.3%, and annualized Core CPI inflation is expected to tick down to 3.5% YoY compared to the previous 3.6%.

The Fed’s latest rate call and Monetary Policy Statement will draw plenty of attention on Wednesday, but broad investor attention will be focused squarely on updates to the Fed’s dot plot. With interest rate expectations getting knocked steadily back in 2024, investors are increasingly concerned that Wednesday’s Fed outing will see a shift in the dot plot to exclude rate cuts in 2024.

EUR/USD technical outlook

In only three days, EUR/USD went from challenging the bullish side of a descending trendline to falling back into the bearish half, tumbling below declining technical levels from 2024’s early highs near 1.1150. The pair has slipped back below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0814, and the pair is challenging chart territory on the south end of 1.0750.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart