Dow Jones Industrial Average hunkers down ahead of Fed minutes

• Dow Jones tepid on Wednesday as investors await FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Hopes for a September rate cut are beginning to dry up.
• US PMI, Durable Goods Orders in the pipe for later in the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slipped back slightly in the early US market session on Wednesday as investors continue to get pushed back on broad rate cut expectations. A recent decline in US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation helped to bolster traders’ confidence in a September rate trim from the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, still-high inflation numbers well above the Fed’s 2% target range and a cautionary warning from Fitch Ratings that global services inflation is likely to remain higher for longer are battering investors’ rate cut dreams.

Fitch Ratings announced on Wednesday that global services inflation will likely remain higher for longer than originally anticipated, meaning interest rates are unlikely to recede nearly as quickly as investors have hoped through all of 2024. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in only 60% odds of a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September, tumbling from 70% in a matter of days. In December, rate traders were pricing in better-than-even odds of six rate cuts in 2024 from the FOMC beginning in March. Fast forward to today, and investors are seeing the door slowly close on two rate cuts for the year beginning in September.

The FOMC’s latest Meeting Minutes will publish during Wednesday’s US market session, and investors will be pouring over the details looking for signs of dovish dialogue from Fed policymakers.

Dow Jones news

The Dow Jones is trading mostly flat on Wednesday in the run-up to FOMC Meetings Minutes. The equity index is trading within a tenth of one percent of the day’s opening bids, with nearly half of the index’s constituent securities in the red. Dow Inc. (DOW) has fallen 2% on Wednesday, trading into $57.80, extending a backslide from a 52-week high set only a week ago.

On the high side, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) climbed 1.83% to $154.01 per share after reporting Q1 net profit of $3.26 billion. The previous quarter, JNJ had posted a net loss of $68 million.]

Dow Jones technical outlook

The Dow Jones has backslid from a recent all-time record high of 40,070.82, but intraday action has found a technical floor at 39,775.00. The equity index has been unable to recapture 39,900.00, but the DJIA remains firmly bullish in the medium-term.

The Dow Jones is trading well above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 37,142.67 as investors take a breather from a broad-market bull run, but profit-taking remains thin keeping the DJIA bolstered firmly into bull country.

Dow Jones five minute chart

Dow Jones daily chart