US Dollar looking for direction as slew of Federal Reserve officials are set to speak

• The US Dollar trades mixed on Monday with no clear direction in the European session. 
• The Greenback is not soaring despite the risk-off sentiment in markets. 
• The US Dollar Index keeps hovering around 104.50 waiting for a fresh catalyst. 

The US Dollar (USD) is afloat on Tuesday, holding around 104.50 as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), with no clear direction visible for the week after the standstill performance on Monday. Markets are a bit all over the place with recent polls indicating former US President Donald Trump would win if elections were held today, while equities are sliding lower ahead of Nvidia earnings on Wednesday. Add another fresh set of Fed speakers to the mix, and today’s trading could get bumpy. 

On the economic data front, no first-tier indicators are scheduled for today, and the focus will be, as mentioned above, on the Federal Reserve (Fed). On Monday, markets already heard from many Fed members, though the message was very unified in line that the Fed could still do whatever it considered appropriate to tame inflationary pressures. Of course, markets are not buying into the idea that another rate hike is on the horizon, though a “steady for a bit longer” stance is now fully priced in. 

Daily digest market movers: Fed members again

• The US Redbook Index for the week ending May 17 is due at 12:55 GMT. The previous number was 6.3%.
• No less than seven Fed members are due to speak:
  • At 13:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivers a speech about the US economic outlook at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • At the same time, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin delivers opening remarks at the bank's conference "Investing in Rural America".
  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers opening remarks at the 2024 Governance and Cultural Reform Conference at 13:05 GMT.
  • Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will discuss the economy, lessons learned from the 2023 liquidity crisis, and regional banking supervision in a fireside chat at the 2024 Regional State Member Bank Director and Executive Conference at 14:45 GMT.
  • Near 23:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic moderates a keynote speech at the Atlanta Fed's Financial Market Conference dinner. He will be joined by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester.
• Equities are on the back foot, with Asian equities erasing the positive vibe from Monday. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index trades 2% lower near its closing bell, while European indices are struggling around 0.50% down. US equity futures are still looking for direction ahead of the US opening bell.
• The CME Fedwatch Tool suggests a 96.4% probability that June will still see no change to the Federal Reserve's fed fund rate. Odds have changed for September, with the tool showing a 49.6% chance that rates will be 25 basis points lower than current levels.
• The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.31%, in the middle of this week's range. 

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Can Fed officials support the DXY

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades mixed on Tuesday, with markets holding their breath while waiting for Nvidia earnings on Wednesday. The fact that an earnings release of a single stock is the most important event shows that there are no big catalysts to deliver some sense of direction for markets. However, it is clear that since some weeks ago, markets have been happy again to head into risk-on, which amasses in an easing US Dollar overall. 

On the upside, the DXY Index is already near a chunky resistance level. The first level to recover is the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.72. Further up, the following levels to consider are 105.12 and 105.52. 

On the downside, the 100-day SMA around 104.20 is the last man supporting the decline. Once that level snaps, an air pocket is placed between 104.11 and 103.00. Should the US Dollar decline persist, the low of March at 102.35 and the low from December at 100.62 are levels to consider.  

(This story was corrected at 11:23 GMT to say that the earnings release for Nvidia is on Wednesday)