USD/CAD edges down to 1.3650 as US Dollar drops, Oil price rebounds

• USD/CAD drops to 1.3650 on multiple headwinds.
• Firm speculation for Fed rate cuts in September has uplifted the market mood.
• A sharp recovery in the Oil price improves the Canadian Dollar’s appeal.

The USD/CAD pair falls after failing to recapture the crucial resistance of 1.3700 in Monday’s early New York session. The Loonie asset slips to 1.3650 due to multiple headwinds: a decline in the US Dollar and a sharp recovery in the Oil price.

Market sentiment is quite bullish, as investors’ confidence in the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates from the September meeting has improved. The S&P 500 opens on a bullish note, exhibiting a higher risk appetite. The scenario of the Fed pivoting to interest rate cuts is unfavorable for bond yields. 10-year US Treasury yields have come down below the crucial support of 4.50%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles for a firm footing above 105.00 as weak United States economic data has raised concerns over the economic outlook. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the Services PMI data for April showed that labor demand was weak, the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.9%, wage growth slowed, and Services PMI fell to an almost 16-month low of 49.4. These conditions indicate that the economy is failing to cope with the Fed’s restrictive framework.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar gains as the Oil price rebounds from $77.75. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, ends its six-day losing spell as investors worry about geopolitical risks. Israel is expected to extend operations in Rafah, the southern part of Gaza, as prospects for a Gaza ceasefire appear slim. On Sunday, Hamas reiterated its demand for an end to the war in exchange for the freeing of hostages but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flatly ruled that out, Reuters reported.

It is worth noting that Canada is the leading exporter of Oil to the US and higher Oil prices strengthen the Canadian Dollar.