Crude Oil slumps on risk aversion, WTI tests $81 per barrel

• WTI tumbles to $81.00 per barrel as risk appetite withers.
• US inflation remains problematic for rate cut hopes.
• API barrel counts climbed 4.906 million.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil fell on Tuesday, declining to $81.00 per barrel as investors pulled out of riskier assets and into safe havens like the US Dollar (USD) following an unexpected uptick in wages data, implying inflation will continue to eat away at chances for a near-term rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

The American Petroleum Insitute (API) reported a week-on-week increase of 4.906 million barrels in US Crude Oil supplies as US production continues to outpace demand. According to API data, US Crude Oil stocks through the week ended April 26th are up 6.514 million barrels for the month of April.

The US Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) unexpectedly declined to 37.9 in April, down from the forecast 44.9 and declining from the previous month’s 41.4. The downbeat activity outlook throws cold water on investors that are getting the worst of both worlds when it comes to rate cut hopes: the decline in US economic activity is picking up speed, boding poorly for equity markets, while inflation pressures remain stubbornly high, hobbling the Fed’s abilities to deliver rate cuts.

WTI technical outlook

WTI has fallen back to a familiar supply zone near $81.00 as bullish momentum in US Crude Oil remains limited. WTI pivoted into a selloff after failing to hold onto the $84.00 level last week, and a pattern of lower highs is plaguing the technical chart since the last swing high peaked near $87.00 at the beginning of April.

Daily candlesticks are poised for a return to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $79.17. An extended downside push will see short sellers dragging WTI down to last December’s bottom bids near $68.00.

WTI hourly chart

WTI daily chart