Mexican Peso gains ahead of Fed’s decision, USD/MXN dips

• Mexican Peso up vs. US Dollar, eyes on Fed and Banxico meetings.
• Banxico may ease policy, affecting USD/MXN as rates diverge in favor of Greenback.
• Mexico's inflation data on Thursday to hint at Peso's path.
• Fed's rate stance and hawkish cues might underpin USD/MXN with resistance levels the focus.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) recovers some territory on Wednesday against the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT. During the first half of the week, the Mexican currency has been on the defensive amid speculation that on Thursday the Bank of Mexico – also known as Banxico – might begin its easing cycle. Consequently, the reduction of the interest rate spread between the US and Mexico could underpin the Greenback. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 16.78, down 0.14%.

Mexico’s economic calendar remains absent on Wednesday, but it will gather pace on Thursday. Besides Banxico’s decision, economic growth data and mid-month inflation figures in March, which are expected to remain virtually unchanged compared to previous readings, could impact the USD/MXN exchange rate.

The market anticipates the Fed maintaining interest rates at their current levels, but there is speculation of a hawkish tilt. This could potentially impact the USD/MXN exchange rate. Policymakers will update their economic and monetary policy projections – the so-called Dot Plot. If just two of the dots move up, that would indicate the Fed is considering two interest rate cuts instead of the three initially projected in the December meeting.

That could drive the USD/MXN higher toward the 17.00 figure, and buyers could threaten to break key resistance levels.

Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso shrugs off Banxico’s imminent cut and rises

• Estimates that Banxico will lower the interest rate from 11.25% to 11% put “some” pressure on the Mexican currency, which could lift the USD/MXN toward the 17.00 mark.
• Mexico’s economic data released in the week:
  • Aggregate Demand rose by 0.3% QoQ in Q4, up from 0%. On an annual basis, it decelerated from 2.7% to 2.6%.
  • Private Spending on a quarterly basis slowed from 1.2% to 0.9%. On a yearly basis, it improved from 4.3% to 5.1%.
• On March 21, Banxico is expected to decrease interest rates, even though it could feature a 3-2 vote split. Recent speeches and media appearances show that Banxico’s Governing Council is divided, with Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja, Omar Mejia Castelazo and Galia Borja Gomez leaning dovish. On the hawkish front lie Jonathan Heath and Irene Espinosa Cantellano.
• The slowdown in Mexico’s economy is one of the main reasons that Banxico is eyeing the first cut. Mexico’s central bank expects the economy to grow 2.8% YoY in 2024, down from 3%, but maintained at 1.5% for 2025.
• The latest inflation figures in the United States prompted investors to price in a less dovish stance. Money market futures have adjusted their rate cut expectations to be more in line with the Fed's as they foresee the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 4.71% toward the end of the year. Analysts estimate the Fed will not change its Federal Funds Rates (FFR) level until June or later.
• US Treasury bond yields drop, but the US Dollar Index (DXY) advances 0.13%, up at 103.95, capping the USD/MXN fall.

Technical analysis: Mexican Peso counterattacks as USD/MXN slumps below 16.80

The USD/MXN is neutral to downwardly biased after buyers lifted the exchange rate to a weekly high of 16.94 before retreating beneath 16.80. If the pair extends its losses below 16.78, the January 8 swing low, that could exacerbate a test of last year’s low of 16.62 before diving to 16.32, the October 2015 low.

On the other hand, if buyers lift the pair above the current week’s high of 16.94, that would pave the way for testing 17.00. The next key resistance levels would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 17.02, the 100-day SMA at 17.16, and the 200-day SMA at 17.21.

USD/MXN Price Action – Daily Chart