WTI rises amid declining US inventories and geopolitical woes

• WTI climbs 1.46% to $78.91, buoyed by US crude inventory drop and geopolitical risks impacting supply.
• EIA report reveals larger-than-expected decrease in gasoline stocks, with crude inventories falling against forecasts.
• Market eyes OPEC and IEA updates on oil demand, with Fed policy shifts potentially influencing future price movements.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, rises some 1.46% on Wednesday after bouncing from a daily low of $77.33 in the early North American session. Geopolitical risks threaten to underwhelm supply, and the expectation that the Federal Reserve might begin its easing cycle underpins oil prices. At the time of writing, WTI exchanges hands at $78.91.

Oil prices gain as supply concerns intensify, Fed easing speculations grow

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude oil inventories from the previous week declined by 1.5 million barrels, less than the 1.34 million barrels increase expected by analysts. Further data showed that gasoline inventories dived almost three times estimates while distillate fuels grew. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve grew from 361 million barrels to 361.8 million as the US re-stock its inventories. After the data, WTI rose as high as $79.32 but settled below the $79.00 figure.

Aside from this, geopolitical events continued to drive oil prices. Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, causing a fire at an oil refinery on Wednesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was an attempt to disrupt Russia’s presidential election.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stuck to its forecast for oil demand growth of 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, which exceeded analysts' forecasts.

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is expected to update its figures, which are expected to be lower than OPEC’s.

Besides those factors, speculations that major central banks would begin to cut borrowing costs might drive WTI prices higher. Once the Federal Reserve begins to ease policy, the Greenback would be under pressure, favoring an upside in oil prices.