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- EUR/USD grinds flat on Tuesday on upbeat European data
EUR/USD grinds flat on Tuesday on upbeat European data
- EUR/USD stuck near familiar lows as Euro bidders look for a foothold.
- European data came in mostly better than expected.
- Broader markets continue to chew on rate cut expectations.
EUR/USD cycled Tuesday’s opening bids in a tight pattern as investors await further indications of when central banks will begin making rate cuts with broader markets hinging their focus on interest rate activity.
European economic data came in better than expected, but still broadly exposing a weakened domestic European economy, and momentum remains limited with the US Dollar (USD) seeing a soft pullback heading into the midweek.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD pinned into low side as momentum drains from both sides
- EUR/USD sees little Tuesday momentum as both the US Dollar and the Euro (EUR) recede.
- The pair remains trapped below 1.0800 after last week’s late backslide.
- German Factory Orders unexpectedly climbed 8,.9% versus the forecast flat hold at 0.0%.
- Annualized European Retail Sales also beat expectations by falling less than expected.
- YoY Retail Sales declined 0.8% versus the forecast -0.9%.
- The previous period saw a sharp upside revision from -1.1% to -0.4%.
- Markets shrugged off a steeper-than-expected decline in MoM Retail Sales, which fell -1.1% in December compared to the forecast -1.0%, declining from the previous month’s 0.3% increase (revised upwards from -0.3%).
- Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari hit newswires stating that most of the US’ disinflation pressure is coming from a stabilized supply side.
- Fed Kashkari also noted that the yield curve isn’t a reliable indicator of recession since most disinflation isn’t coming from Fed policies.
- Fed’s Kashkari: remains hopeful that the US will avoid recession, doesn’t see recession as his “base case”.
Euro price today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.12% | -0.52% | -0.49% | -0.66% | -0.51% | -0.44% | -0.12% | |
| EUR | 0.11% | -0.40% | -0.38% | -0.55% | -0.40% | -0.34% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.02% | -0.14% | 0.00% | 0.07% | 0.39% | |
| CAD | 0.48% | 0.37% | -0.02% | -0.17% | -0.02% | 0.05% | 0.37% | |
| AUD | 0.66% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.16% | 0.14% | 0.22% | 0.54% | |
| JPY | 0.51% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.02% | -0.17% | 0.07% | 0.38% | |
| NZD | 0.45% | 0.33% | -0.07% | -0.05% | -0.20% | -0.09% | 0.33% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | 0.00% | -0.39% | -0.37% | -0.54% | -0.39% | -0.32% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Technical analysis: EUR/USD stuck near familiar bottoms in low-momentum trading
EUR/USD recently fell into fresh near-term lows after backsliding 1.6% from last week’s peak bids near 1.0897, and the pair remains trapped on the bottom end of the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.0820, and the EUR/USD remains pinned below the 1.0800 handle.
Tuesday’s flat cycle sees the EUR/USD adrift in bear country after the pair tumbled out of a recent congestion zone between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs near 1.0900 and 1.0850 respectively. The immediate technical floor is from December’s bottom bids near 1.0740.
EUR/USD hourly chart
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
What is the Euro?
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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