Canadian Dollar trades thin on Monday ahead of midweek BoC rate call

• Canadian Dollar markets flatten out in quiet Monday trading.
• Canada New Housing Price Index due Tuesday, BoC lands Wednesday.
• Churning Crude Oil markets limit CAD losses.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) sees thin action on Monday to kick off the trading week with limited momentum across the major currency board. CAD traders will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s rate call from the Bank of Canada (BoC), and markets are set for a blustery Friday to end the week with a fresh print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index.

The latest New Housing Price Index figures from Canada are due in the early US session on Tuesday but are expected to have a limited impact. In the meantime, downside pressure on the Canadian Dollar is limited on Monday as the Crude Oil market retests higher levels.

Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar mostly flat in thin Monday action

• The Canadian Dollar has a notable lack of momentum on Monday.
• Markets are treading softly to kick off the new trading week but sticking close to the high end after US stocks hit all-time record prices last Friday.
• The Bank of Canada is broadly expected to hold rates steady at 5%, and investors will keep a close eye on the press conference to follow.
• According to a poll by Reuters, 22 of 34 surveyed economists see the first rate cut from the BoC to happen in June, with the remaining 12 calling for April.
• Back in December, swap markets were pricing in a 60% chance of a first rate cut from the BoC in March. Markets have since broadly pivoted their rate forecasts further out.
• This week sees rate calls from three central banks, but market sentiment is set to hinge on press conferences and central bank statements with broad-market hopes of early rate cuts thoroughly disappointed in recent weeks.
• Crude Oil markets continue to bid into recent highs, keeping the Canadian Dollar aloft.
• Geopolitical concerns see Crude Oil bids remaining elevated, but buildups in refined products are getting difficult to ignore as the global demand outlook for fossil fuels begins to wither.

Technical Analysis: Canadian Dollar treads water on Monday, USD/CAD cycling near 1.3450

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) sees limited momentum in either direction as markets get the new trading week underway. The CAD is down around a quarter of a percent against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) as broader markets drive up those currencies specifically, but the CAD is essentially flat against the rest of its major currency peers.

The USD/CAD is tangled up on the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the intraday chart as the pair continues to find reasons to stick close to the 1.34500 region.

On the daily candlesticks, the USD/CAD is at risk of continuing a bearish rejection from a technical consolidation of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs just below 1.3500, and near-term risks are pointed firmly to the downside.

On the high side, the USD/CAD is poised for a fresh run at last November’s peak near 1.3900 if near-term bullish momentum extends beyond last week’s swing high into 1.3550.

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart