Oil gets a breather for now, despite relentless downside risk

• WTI Oil trades near $70 and briefly broke below it on Wednesday and Thursday. 
• Oil outlook supports more downside as recent API and EIA data revealed substantial exports from the US 
• The US Dollar (Index) dropped Thursday as Yen soared 4% at one point against the Greenback.

Oil prices are taking a small breather around $70, after their firm decline earlier this week. When looking at the Oil price and events at hand, it all boils down to simple supply and demand. At the moment there is too much supply, which OPEC+ looks unable to control or limit. Meanwhile the United States is dumping every barrel available on the market to take the wind out of the sales of Russia and locally trying to push gasoline prices lower with a presidential election coming up in 2024.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) got a kick in the back from the Japanese Yen which weighed on the US Dollar Index (DXY). The Yen was up 4% in value against the US Dollar, on the back of comments from the Bank of Japan that alluded to the end of decades of negative yields. With that substantial shift in monetary policy from the Bank of Japan, traders are braced this Friday for the delayed US Jobs Report where any number below expectations might trigger another substantial amount of weakness for the US Dollar and the DXY.  

Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $70.56 per barrel and Brent Oil trades at $75.30 per barrel at the time of writing. 

Oil news and market movers: US floods markets

• Traders remain sceptical of the promised supply cuts from OPEC+ as these promises remain non-binding and are not obliged. 
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) remains bearish on its outlook for Oil, pointing to still muted demand from China.
• Meanwhile US Shale production has been growing substantially and is one of the main reasons for the massive number in exports from the country on the Oil market.
• Markets and traders need to be on the lookout for any emergency meetings taking place by OPEC or OPEC+, and where more severe measures could be outlined that might trigger a substantial turnaround in the price action. 
• Closing off Friday will be with the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count near 18:00 GMT. Previous was 505 with no forecast foreseen.

Oil Technical Analysis: Traders do not believe OPEC+

Oil prices are facing issues, image issues to be precise. Traders are placing further bearish bets on Oil prices after OPEC+ was unable to put firm measures in place that could support the Oil prices and rather move the needle upwards instead of downwards. As long as OPEC+ can not make a united front, more downside is the only outcome with arch nemesis, the US, dumping millions of barrels per day in an already flooded Oil market. 

On the upside, $80.00 is the resistance to watch out for. Should crude be able to jump above that again, look for $84.00 (purple line) as the next level to see some selling pressure or profit taking. Should Oil prices be able to consolidate above there, the topside for this fall near $93.00 could come back into play.

On the downside, the soft floor near $74.00 got broken and is gone for now. For now, $70.00 is trying to salvage the situation, though it has been breached already on Thursday and Wednesday. Watch out for $67.00, which aligns with a triple bottom from June, as the next support level to trade at. 

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart