UK: Expect another turbulent year for Brexit - ING

James Smith, a developed markets economist at ING, notes that within just three trading days of December's UK election, the initial optimism about a smoother EU withdrawal quickly gave way to concern about the next stage of negotiations.

• "Investors are probably right to be cautious - 2020 has the potential to be another turbulent year for Brexit.
• To recap, December's election result, which saw Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives gain an 80-seat majority, now virtually-guarantees ratification of the withdrawal agreement - the deal agreed between the UK and EU back in October. That means the UK will almost certainly leave the EU smoothly at the end of January.
• But the discussions on the terms of future UK-EU trading arrangements have barely got started. Remember the withdrawal agreement covered mostly 'exit issues' - that's things like the UK's financial obligations, citizens' rights, alongside a trading framework to avoid frictions along the Irish border.
• The current direction of travel is towards a free-trade agreement between the UK and EU - but exactly what form that will take, and the length of time it will take to negotiate, are both still subject to change."