Goldman says oil rally likely short lived unless supply disrupted

A flare-up in U.S.-Iran tension may be keeping oil elevated, but an actual disruption to global crude supplies is needed to keep prices at current levels, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Price risks for Brent, which has surged about 6% since the U.S. strike killed a top Iranian general, are skewed to the downside in the coming weeks without a major supply disruption, Goldman said in a note. Oil was already trading above the bank's fundamental fair value of $63 a barrel prior to the attack, buoyed by an "over-enthusiastic December risk-on rally" despite limited evidence of an acceleration in global growth, they said.

"It is not a given that any potential retaliation by Iran would target oil producing assets," Goldman analysts including Jeff Currie said. "The recent incident at the U.S. embassy in Iraq occurred while there was no disruption to neighboring oil fields."

The September strike on key oil producing facilities in Saudi Arabia indicated that the market has significant supply flexibility, according to Goldman. There is only "moderate upside" from current levels, even if an attack on oil assets actually occur, the bank said.