China: Improving sentiment on positive progress in trade talks – Standard Chartered

Analysts at Standard Chartered reveal that their China’s nowcasting model points to GDP growth of 6.0% YoY in the first two months of Q4 2019, in line with Q3. 

“While China’s economy started Q4 on a weak note, it rebounded in November on seasonal factors and policy support (Figure 2). Average industrial production (IP) growth for October-November edged up 0.5ppt to 5.5% y/y versus Q3 on a recovery in the manufacturing sector.

The manufacturing PMI returned to expansionary territory in November after staying below the 50-threshold for six months, indicating an improvement in the demand outlook. Meanwhile, retail sales and fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth slowed in real terms.

Our latest SMEI rose further in December, suggesting improved growth momentum towards the end of Q4. The manufacturing sector remained firm and the services sector showed signs of catching up.

Positive progress on US-China trade negotiations and the near-term prospects of signing a ‘phase one’ deal likely continued to anchor market expectations and improve business confidence. We expect Q4 growth to have picked up to 6.1% y/y.”